2024-25 NBA Season Predictions

Welcome to the “Casual Fan” section of The Show Notes! This is where I talk about sports. Certain aspects of what you read here, such as the depth of the analysis and amount of objectivity, will vary depending on a number of different factors. I promise to always be entertaining though. If you like this, check out my show!

NBA season has arrived! I’ll be doing plenty of in-depth analysis with the help of experts you know and love all season long here. As you will see, some episodes are already up! In the meantime, here’s what I think is going to happen over the course of the season in the Western Conference PLUS who will be lifting up the Larry O’Brien Trophy when it’s all said and done. Check out Part 1 for my Eastern Conference predictions as well as who I think will walk away with which awards!

The Playoff Teams

1) Los Angeles Lakers

Just kidding! Could you imagine?

1) Oklahoma City Thunder

Last season’s surprise #1 seed in the Western Conference won’t sneak up on anybody this year, but they’ve added reinforcements. They bring in Alex Caruso, which means they have another elite perimeter defender alongside Lu Dort. In a sentence I never thought I’d type, Caruso and Dort will also provide reliable outside shooting. Isaiah Hartenstein will begin the season on the injured list, but he’s the bulk they didn’t have last season which ultimately led to their playoff exit. You should know about the greatness of both Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Chet Holmgren, but this is the year Jalen Williams finally gets national recognition. How much they’re able to build on last season’s experience will determine their title chances this year. 

2) Dallas Mavericks

Last season was fun, right? A lack of 3-point shooting played a significant role in their Finals loss, so enter Klay Thompson. Assuming he’s more reasonable about who he is as a player now, his presence will go a long way toward easing the offensive burden on Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. Defensively, they still have question marks that make me hesitant to predict another Finals run. I’d love a stat that could show what their defensive rating would be if Luka actually got back instead of arguing with the refs. I’m excited to see the development of Dereck Lively II. Paired with Daniel Gafford, they form one hell of a two-headed monster in the post.

3) Sacramento Kings

It felt like they took a bigger step back last season than they actually did. Quietly, they are putting together a well-rounded squad that will play a style that is conducive to regular season success. Demar DeRozan is an upgrade over Harrison Barnes, and he has the versatility to play a small ball 4 for stretches. In a rarity these days, both Domantas Sabonas and Keegan Murray need to be more assertive when looking for their own offense. Was the De’Aaron Fox 3-point shot for real? If so, good luck guarding him. They have depth outside of 6th Man of the Year candidate Malik Monk, but how often can those guys play up to their potential? That and the ability to defend will determine their postseason ceiling.

4) Memphis Grizzlies

Y’all must’ve forgot! Historically, they have been a 2-seed with peak, healthy Ja Morant. Assuming that’s the case this season, I might be underrating them here. Last season stunk due to injuries but it was crucial for figuring out what they have and development. Morant and Desmond Bane are a fantastic 1-2 punch. To truly compete, they need Jaren Jackson Jr. to figure out how to stop committing silly fouls and when to shoot 3s. It is entirely possible they walked away from the 2024 NBA Draft with the 2 biggest steals in Zach Edey and Jaylen Wells. If he’s fully recovered from blowing out his Achilles tendon, Brandon Clarke is a difference-maker.

5) Minnesota Timberwolves

What better way to celebrate your franchise’s best season in 20 years than by making a blockbuster trade that makes no sense? By no means am I anti-Julius Randle, but I thought they’d done a decent job of figuring out the Karl-Anthony Towns fit. Anthony Edwards is the star. Will he act like it? He was running on fumes in the playoffs. There’s still a lot to like here. Who provides depth for Mike Conley Jr. and how well do they do it?

6) Denver Nuggets

Did you think I forgot about them? Nikola Jokic will once again play at an MVP level, but when I look around the rest of the roster I’m underwhelmed. They won the title because Jamal Murray played like a superstar. Last season, he was up and down until the bottom fell out in the playoffs. His struggles continued through the Olympics. There’s a strong possibility that the injuries have taken their toll and that’s just who he is now. They’ve lost key pieces from that title team each of the past 2 offseasons, and have no way to do anything about it thanks to Michael Porter Jr.’s monstrous contract. Even if everybody is healthy, what do they have past their top 4 players? However, they have a firm floor due to the magic of the Joker.

The Play-In Teams

7) Phoenix Suns

I’m still having a hard time with the Bradley Beal fit. The rest of the roster is coming along though. Bringing in Tyus Jones allows Devin Booker to move off-the-ball where he is infinitely more effective. Booker and Kevin Durant will once again be one of the most explosive duos in the league. Grain of salt because it’s preseason, but rookie Ryan Dunn has looked like the 3 and D guy they’ve missed since trading away Cam Johnson and Mikal Bridges to get Durant. However, even if new Head Coach Mike Budenholzer miraculously figures out the Beal thing, you still have to hold your breath when it comes to everyone being healthy.

8) New Orleans Pelicans

Speaking of holding your breath about teams being healthy, this is the hardest team to predict for that very reason. Zion Williamson had a legendary play-in performance (at least, as legendary as a play-in performance can be) against the Lakers before going down with yet another injury. They managed to advance before meekly bowing out to the Kings while Brandon Ingram was half asleep. There’s plenty of talent here, including the newly acquired Dejounte Murray, but they spend a lot of time looking like they don’t know what they want to be. And, honestly, how could they with so many pieces in and out of the lineup? If they aren’t looking to deal Ingram, they should be.

9) Golden State Warriors

Well, the dynasty is over. I mean, it’s been over, but they finally realized it. Steph Curry is still here though! And still ridiculously good at what he does. Draymond Green had somewhat of a resurgent season that was overshadowed by him acting like himself. They replace Klay Thompson with Buddy Hield, who should be an upgrade offensively if he simply accepts his role. Jonathan Kuminga should be the #2 option on offense. How does he handle that responsibility and will he pay attention on defense? Assuming Steve Kerr finally handles the rotations like a man preparing for the future, this will be a rocky but entertaining season.

10) Houston Rockets

This is more notable for what it means in terms of who won’t be making the postseason, but I do like this roster. They were 41 and 41 last year so they have to find about 5 more wins or so somewhere in their schedule. Between getting another year more comfortable in Ime Udoka’s system and presuming their young talent continued their improvement, this feels doable. They have a cache of wings with a ton of potential. Which one separates himself from the pack? Alperen Sengun was 1 of 6 players to average 20+ points, 9+ rebounds, and 5+ assists per game last year. Is rookie Reed Sheppard this generation’s Mark Price?

Outside Looking In

11) Los Angeles Lakers

The organization’s big moves were hiring LeBron’s podcast co-host to be the head coach and drafting his son, who will most likely start the year as a backup PG in the G-League.

12) Los Angeles Clippers

They sold their souls to build a contender around Kawhi, who is already on the injured list indefinitely, and Paul George, who now plays for the 76ers.

13) Utah Jazz

There’s nothing Danny Ainge loves more than to collect assets and sit on them. I bet he crushes at Monopoly.

14) San Antonio Spurs

We will get some solid pictures of Chris Paul yelling at Wemby, but this roster has a ways to go.

15) Portland Trail Blazers

When asked what he took away from a rookie season where he struggled mightily, Scoot Henderson said that he looks back at all the good food he had.

NBA Finals

New York Knicks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder

The Knicks take advantage of the fact that repeating is hard to dethrone the Celtics in the East. The Thunder looked the part for most of last season and addressed the issues that got in their way.

NBA Champion: Oklahoma City Thunder

They were ahead of schedule last season, which normally leads to a regression at some point. This team is legit though. SGA is a top-5 player in the league, Jalen Williams is already a solid #2 but should take another step forward in his development, and they added pieces that will help with defense, rebounding, and 3-point shooting. Also, Sam Presti is a wizard and they have assets that will let them make a move if they need it. They remind me of the 2006 Miami Heat.

Thanks for checking out Part 2! Be sure to check out Part 1 for my Eastern Conference predictions as well as who I think win awards this season!